Re: More aggressive Sumo style

["Gunnar Jeschke 5610" <JESCHKE@snchemie2.chemie.uni-bonn.de>]

> > From: Pardoe, Richard (prdr) <PRDR@chevron.com>
> > To: 
> > 
> > fixed bouts (yaocho?).  SInce the loser in these bouts often does little
> > more than take three steps backward .... (Don't know to what extent fixed
> bouts
> > exist, but it does seem that an awfully high percentage of 7-7 rikishki
> > win on the last day.)
> 
> I think that empirical analysis of Day 13 through 15 bouts would show a
> statistically significant divergence of results favoring rikishi in need of
> kachi-koshi over rikishi whose records were established.  This data should
> be plainly available for quite a long period of time.  However, the losses
> in those bouts do not always amount to "three steps backward."  Often, it
> seems to me, that there's a bit of a tussle, a tie-up, and a sudden throw;
> or a near loss and a turnabout.
> 

I agree that statistically too many 7-7 rikishi win on the last day, 
maybe even too many 6-7 rikishi win the day before. But this is not 
necessarily evidence for yaocho. These bouts pit someone who 
desperately tries to win against someone who has already achieved his 
main goal in the basho. If you observe similar situations in other 
fields of life (say in science) you often also find that the guy 
under more pressure performs unexpectedly well and the "satisfied" 
guy performs unexpectedly weak. This is especially true if you 
observe people who are both top performers in their field and this is 
exactly the case in makuuchi.

To be sure, this does not exclude yaocho as a possible explanation. 
But statistics alone reveals only correlation, it does not establish 
causation except for cases of very low complexity.

Gunnar