Re: Takanohana and the playoffs

[Szalkai Akos <akos@is.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp>]

On Sat, Nov 22, 1997 at 08:03:59PM -0500, Charles Beauchamp wrote:
> Let's see now.  The routine argument that I always press is that
> Takanohana get's an advantage towards yusho because of schedule. 
> Usually that argument is greeted with replies that he beats Ake and Maru
> regularly enough that it makes no difference.  

Let's think about it logically.  Now Taka, Waka and Henka(nonami) do not
fight each other in a hon-basho.  Instead, they fight two hapless
mid-maegashira, say Ganyu and Kotoinazuma, which is two automatic wins for
each of them (no matter how much I like Kotoinazuma).  If they had to fight
each other, then because of the simple fact that in a bout there is exactly
one winner and one loser, there are two possible outcomes.  Either one of
them beats the other two, then instead of 2 wins each, one of them would
have 2 wins, one of them 1 win and 1 loss and the third of them 2 losses. Or
they beat each other around, that is, all of them have 1 win and 1 loss.
Again, this is just because no matter how great Taka and Waka are (which
they are, undoubtedly), if they faced each other in a bout, one of them
would have to lose, instead of both beating Ganyu.  This would mean either
much less yusho for Little Brother, or somewhat worse records for Big
Brother, or Henka losing his ozeki rank now and then.

So what I am trying to say that you have to view them together (and if you
throw Takatoriki and Akinoshima into this, it gets worse for them).  If they
had to fight each other and Taka would still be as great as today then Waka
and Nami would have worse records (yes, one or two losses more in a basho
can make a huge difference).  Or if the ozeki were as good as today, Taka
could not be a dai-yokozuna.

> How about this though.  He is now 0-3 lifetime against the two Ozeki in
> his stable.  Ya, small sample size...and maybe the first two were
> giveaways back in 95.

They showed the '96 Hatsu Basho playoff between Taka and 'Nami.  I don't
think it was a giveaway, both of them really seemed to fight for his life,
and the winning kawazugake is probably not the best choice in a giveaway
match, it needs quite some acting talent to fake it, I think. However, I
definitely think today's bout was a giveaway (though it might not have been,
of course).  Let me describe it as I have seen it.  Takanonami starts with
huge bandages on both his legs.  Takanohana immediately grabs 'Nami's
mawashi with a morozashi grip.  Isn't it usually deadly from Takanohana?
Then they rest for a second, and without any further ado, Takanonami turns
for an uwatenage (don't imagine any great speed here), and, magically,
throws Takanohana, who I have never seen nearly this off-balance (I could
describe him as jumping over Takanonami's legs).  Either Taka had the worst
bout of his carreer, or something is suspicious (he did not seem to be
injured). Of course, he owed this win to Takanonami, for both the Haru basho
(beating the co-leader, Maru on senshuraku) and the Aki basho (beating the
leader, Maru on senshuraku).

> But one must wonder if he faced the same schedule
> as Maru (who has the single toughest schedule in the top division
> lately) would he even have 10 yusho?

Why do you say Maru has the toughest schedule?  Akebono has to face
everybody Maru has to in the upper ranks (except himself -- he faces Maru
instead :), AND Dejima and Musoyama.

Akos