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Kaio's ozeki chances



I certainly agree with Paul Barnier, who wrote:

>I think what would concern the Sumo Kyokai more is that fact that Kaio has
>yet to win more than 11 bouts in a tournament. I think if he won 13-2 the
>Kyokai might still wait to see if he could do it again, feeling that a
>few more basho at Sekiwake proving his stuff won't hurt him. Of course
>this could all be academic if he loses to Musashimaru today, but I think
>that if he can break into the 12 win category this time, a promotion
>cannot be too far off.

The magic numbers that the Sumo Kyokai would look for ozeki consideration
given any three basho in a row are these:

15  14  13  12

Lower numbers (11  10  9  8) just show the guy can win, that's all.  

If Kaio can string a three-basho record of 12-10-12, he'd be a shoo-in, but 
if he posts 12-11-11, I would predict he wouldn't get the nod to be an ozeki.
If Kaio got 10-11-12, that would be problematic; the Sumo Kyokai might
prefer to wait another basho to see if he could get 12 again.  

This is my opinion.  IF ONLY I had listed Kaio in my hoshitori, I would be
much better (you see, I was quite sure he wouldn't be able to keep up his
string of consecutive kachi-koshi.  Ohhh well!)

Ken Ikeda (a Nisei living in Japan)
keike@ge.nagano-nct.ac.jp