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Hoshitori: New Banzuke Proposal
Earlier this week, I asked if anyone could come up with a new banzuke
scheme for the hoshitori contest, based on the win-loss equivalents of
the raw scores. Well, Dhuggy was up to the challenge, and after a couple
of steps of iterative refinement between the two of us, we arrived at the
suggestion below, which I now offer up for discussion.
It's really essential to get some feedback on this, as I don't want to
impose changes that nobody wants. So if you're a player (or even if
you're not) have a browse through and let us know what you think. A lot
of player's ranks will probably change if we adopt this scheme, so if
you'll be unhappy about this, now is the time to complain rather than
later...
- Ian.
------------8<----------------- CUT HERE --------------->8------------------
[Dhuggy's message on hoshitori rules]
Hello to all my fellow sumo fanatics, cyber-rikishi, and even those of
you who just lurk (as I did for quite a while)!!!
As many of you who have participated in our hoshitori contests know, we
have recently introduced the use of win-loss equivalents to evaluate an
individual's performance. Ian recently posted a message asking for any
suggestions to improve our hoshitori banzuke to better make use of the
win-loss equivalents. I have come up with an idea, along with some
helpful input from Ian, for a new (and hopefully improved) hoshitori
banzuke system.
In the process of doing this, I also came across a few questions, such
as why do three consecutive 11-4s or better automatically qualify a
cyber-rikishi for Ozeki? This certainly is not in line with Sumo
realities, and is a rule which was created when we only had three
demarcation lines (top 2, 11-4 line, and the kachi/make boundary). Now
that we are using win-loss equivalents, it also makes sense to come up
with new promotion rules to take advantage of them.
I noticed that our current system does not reward 2 or 3 consecutive
14-1 records (or even three consecutive yusho!) any more than three
consecutive 11-4 records. Additionally, we have created a MAJOR
distinction between a 10-5 and 11-4 performance. The only real
distinction in sumo like this is the distinction between kachi- and
make-koshi. These are additional reasons to rethink the
promotion/demotion rules.
If we would like to create a full banzuke, a good set of
promotion/demotion rules becomes quite complicated to write out or to
explain in words. So, I have created a matrix which shows what a
cyber-rikishis new rank would be, based upon their old rank and their
performance. I will also try to explain some of it in words though...
In the past, three consecutive 11-4 records guaranteed Ozeki promotion.
In this new system, three 11-4 records will not guarantee a
cyber-rikishi an Ozeki promotion (only if they were ranked at M5 or
higher to begin with). However, no matter how far a cyber-rikishi
drops, it never takes more than four consecutive 11-4 records to
guarantee Ozeki promotion. Thus it is not just your last three
tournaments that affect your promotion to Ozeki, but how well you were
doing before that, which again seems more accurate for sumo.
New players would come in at M16 rather than the current Juuryou. This
would be a rank that existing players couldn't be demoted or promoted
into, so that new cyber-rikishi could still be easily identified in the
daily results postings.
One consideration in creating this system was that we did not want to
make it discouraging for a cyber-rikishi who has had a couple of bad
tournaments... we would hope they could move up to the higher ranks if
their luck improved. So, we made the move up the banzuke greater for
those at the lower ends of the banzuke, which actually is not too far
out of line with sumo realities. Also, players falling out of the
Maegashira ranks and into juuryou have promotion rules only slightly
stricter than those for M15 and M16, and these promotion rules stay the
same for each level of Juuryou.
So here is the proposed system, as a table showing the new rank resulting
from each possible number of wins at each possible rank.
R
A N U M B E R O F W I N S
N --------------------------------------------------------------------------
K | 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
---+-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Se | Oh Oh Oh Oh Oh Sh Sh Sh Kw Kw 1 1 2 3 4 5
Sw | Se Se Se Se Se Sh Sh Sh Kw 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
Sh | Sw Sw Sw Sw Sw Sh Sh Sh Kw 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Ke | Se Se Se Se Se Sh Sh Sh 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Kw | Sw Sw Sw Sw Sw Sh Sh Sh 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
|
1 | Sw Sw Ke Ke Ke Kw Kw Kw 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2 | Sw Sw Ke Ke Ke Kw Kw 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
3 | Sw Ke Ke Ke Ke Kw Kw 1 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
4 | Sw Ke Ke Ke Ke Kw 1 2 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5 | Ke Ke Ke Ke Ke Kw 1 2 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
6 | Ke Ke Ke Ke Kw 1 2 3 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
7 | Ke Ke Ke Ke Kw 1 2 3 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
8 | Ke Ke Ke Kw 1 2 3 4 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 J1
9 | Ke Ke Ke Kw 1 2 3 4 10 11 12 13 14 15 J1 J1
10 | Ke Ke Kw 1 2 3 4 5 11 12 13 14 15 J1 J1 J1
11 | Ke Ke Kw 1 2 3 4 5 12 13 14 15 J1 J1 J1 J1
12 | Ke Kw 1 2 3 4 5 6 13 14 15 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
13 | Ke Kw 1 2 3 4 5 6 14 15 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
14 | Kw 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 15 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
15 | Kw 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
16 | Kw 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J1 | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2
J2 | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
J3 | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
J4 | etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.
---+-------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NOTE: Yokozuna and Ozeki promotion/demotion rules have not yet been put in
here, but they can wait since they would not seem to be a pressing issue for
us.)
I reiterate the idea that if we are going to redo the banzuke rules to
base them on win-loss equivalents, then we should also redo the Ozeki
promotion rules to better take advantage of this, instead of limiting
ourselves to the rules we came up with before the win-loss equivalents
were ever introduced. It seems impossible (to me) to come up with a
full banzuke scheme that incorporates our current Ozeki promotion
criteria, which may indicate that these criteria are too easy.
One problem with the current system is that while it is still possible
to be promoted with a three tournament record of 11-4, 11-4, 11-4, it is
NOT possible to be promoted with a three tournament record of 15-0,
10-5, 15-0, for example. Perhaps we could say that a Sekiwake needs to
have 33 or 34 wins in their last 3 tournaments, with the most recent
tournament being at least an 11-4. Or we could just stick to the
current system, if that was found to be simpler.
Also, for the new system, consider that even an 8-7 win ALWAYS puts you
in the top half of the banzuke, and an exceptional performance (say,
13-2) will often yield a Komusubi slot, if not somewhere at the top of
the magaeshira ranks. From these levels, you have to have a horrid
performance (2-13), or multiple minor make-koshi (6-9) to drop back to
the bottom half of the banzuke. So, I think most people would stay
within good reach of those Komusubi slots, and the chance for Ozeki
promotion with three good tournaments. And even if they do fall, just
one kachi-koshi record gets them back in the top half.
We did not include absences from the tournament in the matrix. We
figured that an absence would just count as 0 wins (except for the first
absence, which is kosho, or for extinuating circumstances).
One final issue to discuss here is that IF we decide to use a new system
such as this, then how do we figure peoples new ranks? Do we all start
from scratch at M16 for the first tournament? Or do we start from our
current ranks, which were calculated under a different system? Or do we
use each player's entire results history (since they began competing in
our contest)? I think Ian and I agreed that we like this last option
the best, because then no matter what your new rank is, we are all in
the same boat and nobody can complain too much... we hope. =-)
Well, we have put some time, thought, and energy into this, so we are
curious and interested to get some feedback and hear the responses from
the list.
Praise and criticism both welcomed openly.
Dhuggy