Sumo Now! Hatsu Preview 1996

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1996 Hatsu Basho Preview
S U M O   N O W !
(c) 1996 Ken Coller, Seattle WA USA
e-mail k.coller@genie.geis.com for comments to the author or for
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In the superstitious sport of Sumo, the Hatsu Basho is a time to start with
a blank slate, a time to have a change of fortune. For rikishi like
Musoyama and Akebono, it's time for a cycle of nagging injuries to heal and
allow physical potential to be reached. Minatofuji and Mitoizumi, however,
might be hoping to maintain the status quo from 1995.  And as 1996 is the
Year of the Mouse according to the Oriental zodiac, the smaller men (three
of whom inhabit the lowest rungs of the Banzuke for this tournament) might
well be hoping that the New Year's symbol spells good fortune. Takanohana,
always comfortable in Tokyo, has won the last two January tournaments.
Akebono won as Ozeki in 1993.

For the first time in two years, Wakanohana is top Ozeki, displacing
Musashimaru. Generally speaking, unless a yusho-winner is unusually strong
and self-disciplined, it is almost impossible to repeat taking the
Emperor's Cup. The constant cycle of public appearances and parties that
are demanded of a popular champion is fatiguing, and I don't expect
Wakanohana to successfully fight off the food and sake in addition to his
Sanyaku foes.

Wakanohana's yusho in Kyushu was his second,  Akebono's Osaka triumph was
his eighth, and Takanohana won the other four in 1995, to add to the seven
yusho he already had. There are unpredictable dark-horse candidates amongst
the top ranked combatants, and I expect a spirited and interesting New
Year's Basho. It runs from 7 to 21 January 1996 in Tokyo.


The Yokozuna

Takanohana (ye, 12-3)   Yokozuna    Akebono (yw, 7-3-5)

In 1995, Takanohana compiled a record of 80 wins and ten losses, his second
such record in a row. He gave up two matches to Akebono and Musoyama, and
one each to Terao, Kaio, Kotoinazuma, Tosanoumi, Musashimaru and
Kotonishiki. In the first day loss to Komusubi Kotoinazuma, he seemed to
aggravate a nagging injury to his left foot, indeed it was reported that he
finished out that basho with a fractured toe.

Hawaiian Akebono had 69 wins; even with 5 absences, this was good enough to
tie Musashimaru for second best record of the year. When Tosanoumi pulled
him over onto his back on the ninth day of the last basho, Akebono got up,
bowed and walked off without any apparent problem, and his dropping out of
the basho at that point could have been more of a concern for aggravating
injuries other than any that were inflicted in that upset. Akebono is 26,
and his body does not heal as quickly as it once did; the surgery on his
knees may still be having an effect on him in matters of practice regimen
or aerobic conditioning.

Akebono will be determined to win; Takanohana is always dangerous in Tokyo.
Neither Yokozuna is money in the bank; health and luck will determine who
will take the championship. In 1996, I think that the newcomers stirring
the pot in the rest of Sanyaku will make the sport more exciting.

The Ozeki and other Sanyaku

Wakanohana (ow, 12-3)   Ozeki       Musashimaru (oe1, 10-5)
Takanonami (oe2, 9-6)
Kaio (se, 9-6)          Sekiwake    Kotonishiki (sw2, 8-7)
Tosanoumi (m1w, 9-6)    Komusubi    Musoyama (sw1, 7-8)

The three Ozeki: Wakanohana, Musashimaru and Takanonami are what make Sumo
boring. Unwilling to get out of the way to make room for upstart rikishi
and unable to consistently defeat the Yokozuna, these three depend on
kismet much too heavily. For example, had either Akebono or Musoyama been
in top form last basho, an Ozeki would not have won.

Tosanoumi's rise up the ranks has been nothing short of amazing. Ranked a
skosh higher than Musoyama already, the Isenoumi-beya newcomer has shaken
off the appellation "rookie." He certainly does not fight like a piker; he
seems to relish polishing off Futagoyama sekitori, and in a three day span
beat both Yokozuna. At his rate of progress, we'll soon hear who holds the
record for quickest championship from makunouchi-division entry, and if
this young athlete can beat that mark. Kaio, still building his case for
Ozeki promotion, needs to break out of his nine wins per basho pattern.
Musoyama skipped the European Koen, but still didn't look his old self in
Kyushu. With an opening day loss to Kotonowaka, he never managed to put his
head above water and lost four in a row during the first week's action.
Kotonishiki is his own worst enemy; he's got potential, and he's doubtless
got fans, sponsors and an Oyakata who tells him he's Ozeki material, and
perhaps he believes that himself. However, he seems to hesitate when he's
about to turn the corner: the collapse in the last week of the last basho
was something that a last day matchup against old creaky Mitoizumi couldn't
salvage: he lost that bout too.

Despite these dire words, it is important to remember that each of these
Sanyaku rikishi are formidable. There are so many variables in Sumo that it
is impossible to deny anyone a winning basho before the eighth black mark
goes against your name. It is thrilling when Musashimaru, or any of these,
gets that gleam in the eye which signals that for this one bout, he's
master of the dohyo. The trick is, as always, to attain that peak
consistently. On NHK's English language commentary, Dave Wiggins asked
veteran observer David Shapiro "Who do you think will win the yusho?"
rather early on in the tourney. After a beat, the deadpan reply was, "Well,
it will be whoever wins the most bouts."

Maegashira

Takatoriki (kw, 7-8)    m1    Mitoizumi (m2w, 8-7)
Kotonowaka (m3w, 8-7)   m2    Kotoinazuma (ke, 6-9)
Misugisato (m6e, 9-6)   m3    Minatofuji (m5w, 8-7)
Akinoshima (m7w, 8-7)   m4    Asahiyutaka (m8e, 8-7)
Kenko (m1e, 5-10)       m5    Kotobeppu (m9e, 8-7)
Tochinowaka (m2e, 5-10) m6    Kitakachidoki (m10e, 8-7)
Terao (m3e, 5-10)       m7    Asanosho (m12e, 9-6)

It was really very nice to see the Big Salt do so well in the last part of
1995. Winning the last five bouts of the year, he showed stamina and skill.
Kotonowaka seems to be healing from his foot injury, but the jury's out as
to whether he's truly changed his style of sumo to a more diverse one.
Minatofuji is one to watch, as he has been able to focus the strength he
has and looks like he has strategy in mind when grappling with his foes. I
think this is one of the heaviest crops of mobile big men we've had in the
top half of Maegashira: half of the men weigh more than 350 pounds! Having
such heavy "cannon fodder" for the top-rankers might serve to tire them out
as the basho goes on.

Konishiki (m10w, 8-7)   m8    Daishoho (m14w, 10-5)
Naminohana (m5e, 6-9)   m9    Hamanoshima (m11w, 8-7)
Wakashoyo (m4w, 5-9-1)  m10   Kasugafuji (m12w, 8-7)
Oginohana (m15e, 9-6)   m11   Aogiyama (m15w, 9-6)
Oginishiki (m13e, 8-7)  m12   Asanowaka (m9w, 7-8)
Kirishima (m14e, 8-7)   m13   Daishi (m4e, 3-12)
Higonoumi (m8w, 6-9)    m14   Tomonohana (m11e, 7-8)
Mainoumi (m6w, 4-11)    m15   Kyokudozan (m7e, 4-11)
Tamakasuga (j1w, 10-5)  m16

In my last Basho Preview, I noted that Daishoho had "a plenitude of
[injuries]" and that unless he could heal, the "elevator rikishi" was
headed for the sub-basement. I was embarrassed that someone on the Sumo
List took this a little too much like gospel, as if I knew something more
than everyone else. It reminds me that Sumo is a very closemouthed society
as far as injuries are concerned, and that I have to be every bit as
tactful as I can when speculating upon these temporary disadvantages.
Daishoho's knee certainly performed splendidly, earning the only
double-digit winning record below Ozeki.

If we had the heavy guys in the top half, it stands to reason that the
bottom half of Maegashira is light. In fact, if you throw out Konishiki's
630 pounds as a "statistical anomaly," the average weight of the bottom
sixteen rikishi is barely 300 pounds. If you factor in the former Ozeki,
the average jumps 20 pounds. It should be interesting to see if this
results in more exciting bouts between better-matched men. Mainoumi and
Kyokudozan, two of the smallest and more popular wrestlers, need to post
winning records to stay in the top division, and old Kirishima will be
involved in his 1000th upper-division bout on day 4. Wakashoyo, who
suffered that nasty-looking foot injury in his loss to Kitakachidoki, will
sit out this tournament. Newcomer Tamakasuga will probably be a little out
of his league in his first visit to Maegashira, and I'll be surprised if he
makes kachi-koshi.

As far as predictions go, I'll pick Akebono yet again to take the yusho.
Takanohana not winning last time was like the Hawaiian dodging a bullet in
his Yokozuna rivalry. Either Musashigawa-beya sekitori could take the yusho
if the Yokozuna falter. It would be a cleansing experience for either
Musashimaru or Musoyama, and the heya could really use the prestige. Kaio
and Tosanoumi just aren't ready yet, give them another year or so.

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