Yokozuna promotion formula (a recommendation)

[abe@kaleida.com (Masumi Abe)]

  From reading the three-basho record before promoted to yokozuna, and 
the criticism Sumo Kyokai has been receiving from sumo fans and authorities 
for promoting Futahaguro, Hokutoumi and Ohnokuni, prematurely, we could extract 
the condition of promoting a strong yokozuna from these opinions.

My personal opinion:
        (For two basho record immediately before the consideration.)
        15 kosho-yasumi of Wakanohana is no worse than 8-7 record of Asahifuji.
        15-0 record is perfect and rare.
        14-1 record is good yusho record and if it is not yusho, it must be 
                "equivalent of yusho".
        13-2 record is ordinary record for yusho, and if it is yusho-doten,
it is 
                "equivalent of yusho".
        12-3 record is bad yusho record and only yusho is counted.
        11-4 record is not good enough to be counted for considering a yokozuna 
                candidate.
        14-1 record is .933 winning percentage.
        13-2 record is .866 winning percentage.
        12-3 record is .800 winning percentage.
        11-4 record is .733 winning percentage.
        It is more desireble to have a progressive records for three basho.

Yokozuna promotion formula (a recommendation by Masumi Abe)

An ozeki with two consecutive yusho. (Asahifuji & Akebono)
or
An ozeki with two consecutive 14-1 records. 
or
An ozeki with two consecutive 13-2 record or better and two yusho-doten 
or better. (Kitanoumi & Wakanohana II)

An ozeki with total 27-3 record or better for the last two basho and at
least 13-2 record in each basho. (Mienoumi, Takanosato)

If none of above aply, then the candidate must win at least one yusho
within last two basho without exception. (Futahaguro & Ohnokuni failed)

An ozeki with one yusho and one jun-yusho or better during last two basho.
(Hokutoumi, Konishiki & Musashimaru)
and 
The worst record of three basho is 12-3 or better. (Hokutoumi & Musashimaru
failed)
and 
The record of the basho immediately before the promotion consideration 
is 13-2 or better. (Konishi)
and
Average of two basho before the promotion consideration must be 13-2 or better.
(Konishiki failed)

If we apply this formula, three yokozuna (Futahaguro, Hokutoumi and
Ohnokuni) could not have been promoted to Yokozuna at the time they were
actually promoted.
And Sumo Kyokai's dicision of not to promote Konishiki or Musashimaru to
Yokozuna should have been justified.


>Three basho records right before promoted to yokozuna (last 10 Yokozuna)
>y = yusho, d = yusho-doten, j = jun-yusho
>                                                                3-basho total 
>         2-basho total
>1974    Jul.    Kitanoumi
>        10-5            13-2 (y)        13-2 (d)        36-9            26-4
>1978    May     Wakanohana II
>        13-2 (j)        13-2 (d)        14-1 (d)        40-5            27-3
>1979    Jul.    Mienoumi
>        10-5            13-2 (j)        14-1 (d)        37-8            27-3
>1981    Jul.    Chiyonofuji
>        11-4 (j)        13-2 (j)        14-1 (y)        38-7            27-3
>1983    Jul.    Takanosato
>        12-3 (j)        13-2 (j)        14-1 (y)        39-6            27-3
>1986    Jul.    Futahaguro
>        10-5            12-3 (j)        14-1 (d)        36-9            26-4
>1987    May     Hokutoumi
>        11-4            12-3 (y)        13-2 (j)        36-9            25-5
>1987    Sep.    Ohnokuni
>        15-0 (y)        12-3 (j)        13-2 (j)        40-5            25-5
>1990    Jul.    Asahifuji
>        8-7             14-1 (y)        14-1 (y)        36-9            28-2
>1993    Jan.    Akebono
>        9-6             14-1 (y)        13-2 (y)        36-9            27-3
>
>Other (not being promoted)
>1992    Mar.    Konishiki
>        13-2 (y)        12-3 (j)        13-2 (y)        38-7            25-5
>1994    Jul.    Musashimaru
>        9-6             12-3 (j)        15-0 (y)        36-9            27-3
>
>For  sure promotion after Aki-basho
>1994    Sep.    Musashimaru
>        12-3 (j)        15-0 (y)        13-2 (ydj)      40-5            28-2
>1994    Sep.    Wakanohana
>        15 yasumi       14-1 (j)        14-1 (yd)       28-2            28-2
>
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Masumi Abe                               阿部　加史（あべ　ますみ）
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