Re: Exciting finish!

[Richard Webb <webb@phys3.physics.wsu.edu>]

Stephen Baker writes:
> 
> In fact, I think I see the potential for there being a three way 
> tie (two Taka's and Kotonisiki being one possibility) at 12-3 for 
> the playoff...
> 
> Assuming the above takes place, does anyone know what (if any) the
> rules are concerning the order that the rikishi are pitted against 
> one another in a playoff with more than two combatants? In the senario 
> I mentioned above you would have the two highest ranked opponents 
> (two Taka's) coming from the same stable. But, the remaining rikishi 
> (Kotonishiki) already faced both Ozeki during the basho!??...
> 
We have already discussed this to death, but it was when there were
only 20 people on the list.  The upshot was that I was wrong ;-)
They draw straws to see which two participate in the first match.
The two participants in the first match have a statistical chance
of 5/14 in winning the yusho, with the one who sits out the first
match having a 4/14 chance of winning (assuming exactly even
skill).  The first to win two consecutive matches wins the yusho.
Obviously, the winner of the first match has a 50/50 chance of
winning the yusho in the second match, while the loser has a 50/50
chance of even getting another shot.  The average number of bouts
to decide a winner is three, although as alluded to above the odds
on it ending in three are only 4/14.

Is that enough?

being the exact 

Richard Webb
webb@phys3.physics.wsu.edu

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