Re: [sumo] The Graying of Makunouchi/Asashoryu's chances

[Charles Beauchamp <beauking1@yahoo.com>]

--- "Walker, Jay" <Walker@nhrc.navy.mil> wrote:
> I looked at the current distribution of age ranges
> in the makunouchi
> division and compared it with the last time I did so
> at the Haru '99 basho.
> Here are the results:
> 
> Age		Haru 99	Aki 03
> 
> Under 25	7		3
> 25-27		15		15
> 28-30		13		12
> 31+		5		10
> 
> Total		40		40
> 
> I have no idea if the Haru '99 or Aki '03 basho is
> more representative of
> the historical average, but this does show quite a
> graying in the makunouchi
> division in the past 4 1/2 years.  While the number
> of under-25 rikishi
> declined by more than half, the number of rikishi
> over-30 doubled.
> 
> All this speaks very well for Asashoryu's career. 
> At the moment, the only
> one in the top division under 25 besides him is
> Asasekiryu.  (Aminishiki
> turned 25 today; if Takakaze is promoted, he will
> turn 25 in June.)
> Asashoryu has no top-notch rivals within 4 years of
> him.  Even in Juryo, the
> only ones younger than 25 besides Takakaze are
> Futeno at 23 and Kokkai at
> 22.  And the simple truth is that if you don't make
> it to makunouchi by your
> 25th birthday, you probably are never going to make
> it to ozeki or yokozuna.
> Kirishima was promoted at 25 years, 3 months and
> later made ozeki.  The one
> previous to him was Matsunobori in the early 50's.
> 
> There will be a total of 42 more bashos before
> Asashoryu turns 30.  Who can
> be expected to win these?  The ailing Musashimaru,
> if he makes it to Kyushu,
> will be 32 1/2.  Kaio, bad back and all, turns 32 in
> July.  Musoyama turns
> 32 in February.  If you think those three together
> will win more than 3 more
> tournaments before retiring, perhaps a small wager
> might be in order.
> Chiyotaikai, Tochiazuma, Wakanosato and Kotomitsuki,
> all part of the 'Class
> of '76', are all 27 now.  While one of the quartet
> might prove to be the
> exception, for the most past what they've shown so
> far is about as good as
> it's going to get for them (see
> http://www.banzuke.com/03-1/msg00058.html).
> Let's by generous and assume this quartet takes
> another 8-10 yushos before
> they all retire.  Let's assume someone entirely
> unexpected takes off with
> another one.  That still leaves close to 30 bashos
> unaccounted for before
> Asashoryu's 30th birthday.  And who's to stop him
> from winning a few more
> after that?
> 
> Now maybe injuries will keep Asashoryu from true
> greatness.  There's that
> remote chance that he may actually self-destruct. 
> And it wouldn't be a huge
> surprise if some kid out there, 15 or 20 years old
> now, will emerge as a
> major rival to Asashoryu.  But given the current age
> demographics in sumo, a
> scenario where Asashoryu racks up a serious number
> of yusho is quite
> plausible.  Will it happen?  If I had to bet one way
> or another, I'd bet
> against it since too many things can happen.  But
> I'd say he has at least a
> 25 percent chance of winning 25 or more tournaments
> before he retires.
> 
> -George W.
> [EndPost by "Walker, Jay" <Walker@nhrc.navy.mil>]


With all the factors you described I do think there is
a very good chance that Asashoryu sets a new standard
for yusho by a Gaijin.  (Currently sitting at 12 by
Musashimaru).  

With all the variables of his personality I think it
is even money that he get's kicked out of the kyokai
oe of these days due to some disciplinary problem.

That notwithstanding we are seeing the emergence of a
dominant Yokozuna.  I could see a healthy Asashoryu
winning 3 or 4 yusho a year when healthy for the next
3 - 5 years without much great surprise.  

If I had to bet I'd say 15 or more yusho likely.

v/r Beau

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[EndPost by Charles Beauchamp <beauking1@yahoo.com>]