[sumo] The Graying of Makunouchi/Asashoryu's chances

["Walker, Jay" <Walker@nhrc.navy.mil>]

I looked at the current distribution of age ranges in the makunouchi
division and compared it with the last time I did so at the Haru '99 basho.
Here are the results:

Age		Haru 99	Aki 03

Under 25	7		3
25-27		15		15
28-30		13		12
31+		5		10

Total		40		40

I have no idea if the Haru '99 or Aki '03 basho is more representative of
the historical average, but this does show quite a graying in the makunouchi
division in the past 4 1/2 years.  While the number of under-25 rikishi
declined by more than half, the number of rikishi over-30 doubled.

All this speaks very well for Asashoryu's career.  At the moment, the only
one in the top division under 25 besides him is Asasekiryu.  (Aminishiki
turned 25 today; if Takakaze is promoted, he will turn 25 in June.)
Asashoryu has no top-notch rivals within 4 years of him.  Even in Juryo, the
only ones younger than 25 besides Takakaze are Futeno at 23 and Kokkai at
22.  And the simple truth is that if you don't make it to makunouchi by your
25th birthday, you probably are never going to make it to ozeki or yokozuna.
Kirishima was promoted at 25 years, 3 months and later made ozeki.  The one
previous to him was Matsunobori in the early 50's.

There will be a total of 42 more bashos before Asashoryu turns 30.  Who can
be expected to win these?  The ailing Musashimaru, if he makes it to Kyushu,
will be 32 1/2.  Kaio, bad back and all, turns 32 in July.  Musoyama turns
32 in February.  If you think those three together will win more than 3 more
tournaments before retiring, perhaps a small wager might be in order.
Chiyotaikai, Tochiazuma, Wakanosato and Kotomitsuki, all part of the 'Class
of '76', are all 27 now.  While one of the quartet might prove to be the
exception, for the most past what they've shown so far is about as good as
it's going to get for them (see http://www.banzuke.com/03-1/msg00058.html).
Let's by generous and assume this quartet takes another 8-10 yushos before
they all retire.  Let's assume someone entirely unexpected takes off with
another one.  That still leaves close to 30 bashos unaccounted for before
Asashoryu's 30th birthday.  And who's to stop him from winning a few more
after that?

Now maybe injuries will keep Asashoryu from true greatness.  There's that
remote chance that he may actually self-destruct.  And it wouldn't be a huge
surprise if some kid out there, 15 or 20 years old now, will emerge as a
major rival to Asashoryu.  But given the current age demographics in sumo, a
scenario where Asashoryu racks up a serious number of yusho is quite
plausible.  Will it happen?  If I had to bet one way or another, I'd bet
against it since too many things can happen.  But I'd say he has at least a
25 percent chance of winning 25 or more tournaments before he retires.

-George W.
[EndPost by "Walker, Jay" <Walker@nhrc.navy.mil>]