Top 10 Upsets - Hatsu '03

["G. Jay Walker" <walker@nhrc.navy.mil>]

Here's is a list of the Top 10 upsets in the recently completed Hatsu '03 basho as determined by an elite panel of international sumo experts.  And who is this elite panel you ask?  Why it's you dear folks.

The results are taken from one of our new games, Odd Sumo.  (Just for the record, I'm not involved in either the design or running of the game).  And while the description below isn't literally true, the game basically runs something like this:

You walk through the entrance of the Odd Sumo cyber-casino, and the nice gentlemen at the door gives you 30 million cyber-yen.  You are free to bet each day of the basho, the only restriction being that your bet can't exceed 3 million yen on any given day.  The betting is a form of parlay betting, where you have to predict the winners in 3 to 6 bouts, and all of your selections have to win if you are to receive a payoff at the end of the day.  Of course the more bouts you decide to bet on, the bigger the payoff (that is, assuming each of your bouts is guessed correctly).  Like any casino, there are both high-rollers and 'money managers'.  A majority leave at the end of basho with less money than when they started, a few shrewd ones manage to double their money and you see a few poor souls wandering around broke before the basho is even over.

Odd Sumo presents a more interesting way of pinpointing upsets than a game like Sekitori-Toto.  In Sekitori-Toto you're asked to select a winner for every bout on every day.  Some rikishi might be selected by 80% or 90% of the participants, but that support could be lukewarm.  In Odd Sumo, you are only selecting 3 to 6 bouts a day and you can skip over the days you don't find enough rikishi you feel strongly about.  So when you put your money on someone in Odd Sumo, it's basically because you truly feel they will win.  When about half of the game's participants finger someone as one of the most likely winners for that day and they still wind up losing, well that to me is a pretty good definition of an upset.

So with that rather long introduction (sorry!), here are the Top 10 upsets in the Hatsu '03 basho, at least according to the Odd Sumo participants:

#1 - Day 9 - Kaiho over Asashoryu (77.6% bet on Asashoryu)
The scene - no surprise that this got the #1 ranking.  Takanohana had just announced his retirement that morning, and the path was now clear for Asashoryu's assured yusho and yokozuna promotion.  That is, until Kaiho said "not so fast".

#2 - Day 12 - Takanotsuru over Dejima (65.2% bet on Dejima)
The scene - the Dejima Express was back on track with 9 consecutive victories, making him co-leader after Day 11.  When no suitable opponent could be found due to all the injuries among the top rankers, rookie Takanotsuru was chosen as the sacrificial lamb.  The Express was stopped cold by the bulky newcomer at the tachi-ai, and Dejima was no longer able to fight his kind of sumo.

#3 - Day 8 - Aminishiki over Takanohana (56.8% bet on Takanohana)
The scene - the one bout from this basho that will live on in history as it would be the last time Takanohana would fight on the dohyo.  Give a little credit to Aminishiki here.

#4 - Day 4 - Tamanoshima over Takamisakari (50.0% bet on Takamisakari)
The scene - it was surprising that this bout would rank so high, but I guess there's nothing like a 3-0 record and a little pre-bout chest-thumping to stir up the passions of our elite expert panel.

#5 - Day 11 - Tochinohana over Takamisakari (48.5% bet on Takamisakari)
The scene - at this point Takamisakari was 8-2 and a win off the pace, while Tochinohana had been fed a steady diet of Juryo opponents the last 6 days and was only 2-4 against them.

#6 - Day 15 - Dejima over Wakanosato (48.1% bet on Wakanosato)
The scene - Day 11 co-leader Dejima had seemingly collapsed with consecutive losses to Takanotsuru, Takamisakari and Tosanoumi.  Wakanosato only needed a victory here for 12 wins and sole claim as the tournament's runner-up.  Moreoever, he had lost only to Asashoryu in the last 9 days.

#7 - Day 3 - Jumonji over Shimotori (47.4% bet on Shimotori)
The scene - young prospective star Shimotori seemed like a good bet over Jumonji, an older, long-time rider on the Juryo-Makuuchi elevator.  But Shimo had a bad day at the office as Jumonji got a morizashi grip and quickly won.

#8 - Day 2 - Tokitsuumi over Kotomitsuki (42.1% bet on Kotomitsuki)
The scene - the semi-perennial sekiwake against a man known to roam far and wide over the maegashira landscape.  But let the record reflect that the two had split their previous four bouts and Kotomitsuki got blown out by Dejima the previous day.

#9 - Day 13 - Iwakiyama over Kotomitsuki (42.0% bet on Kotomitsuki)
The scene - after starting the basho off well, Iwakiyama had lost the previous 4 days to sanyaku foes.  This match was not close - perhaps Kotomitsuki had been out celebrating his kachi-koshi from the previous day?

#10 - Day 5 - Kotonowaka over Musoyama (39.7% bet on Musoyama)
The scene - Musoyama had seemed unsteady the first 4 days of the basho, losing to two maegashira foes, but Kotonowaka at 0-4 did not seem to present much of an obstacle to Musoyama's remaining yusho chances.

With thanks to our panel of experts...

-George W.