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[Sumo Games] On the new UDH points system



I'm sorry about that, but as usual, my statements bear high confusion
and discussion potencial:

Garrett wrote:
> I read your rules and I have copied the following from your web
> site: "If one or more selections withdraw/s at any later point,
> every missing day counts as loss."
> This comletely contradicts your "lucky early retirement" statement
> above.
> If I have a rikishi in my top spot, say Aminishiki, and he gets
> injured in his first bout then I immediately get 7 x 14 = 98 bonus
> points. That is much worse than someone getting a bonus of 14
> points for an injured rikishi.

G. Jay Walker wrote:
> But this will complicate things a bit.

You're right, this contradicts and maybe complicates a bit. But
there is no absolute formula to solve it.

My primary view was a statement by G. Jay about his yusho in Aki
2000: it was "I wouldn't have won if Takamisakari wouldn't have
withdrawn - i thought he may have only a 6-9 or 7-8". So G. Jay
probably would have put him on a 1- or 2-pts spot (not higher)
and therefore not have been "over-awarded".

You can speculate on early retirements and maybe gambling brings
the E.s Cup to your home - but a wrong choice will be punished
immediately, as most other players will take two high maegashira
on their 7-/5-pts. And the probablity for a wrong choice is quite
high: there were 51 (2.04/basho) withdrawers and 40 (1.6/basho)
non-selectables from Hatsu97 till Hatsu 01.

So let three of 38 active makuuchi rikishi unexpectedly withdraw
in the next basho: then you have only a 3/38 chance on guessing
right compared to 35/38 or 92,1 per cent on being completely wrong
and losing more than half of the 98 points in your Aminishiki
example, if he decideds to stay some time in the premier division.

The point is: the system will make the players put the typical 
meatgrinders on 7-pts. Then a 3-12 and a 1-2-12 record won't cause
a too unfair difference any more - because you chose this rikishi
as "first choice" and not as a gap-filler by incident, who will
be put on the last spot.

I hope this explains what I thought...


Best Regards,
Tamanaogijima