Re: SUMO: 7-7 yaocho?

[Masumi Abe <abe@accesscom.com>]

Chuck:

I agree with you that we don't agree in some cases.

I agree that "numbers don't lie" but the interpretation of it is not always the
same. Numbers don't lie, but interpretation of the numbers may differ. I treat
numbers as numbers. I won't change or alternate or modify them. Most of rikishi
with 7-7 record in Maegashira tend to get 8-6. I don't deny that. In fact, I
expect it to be that way. So, I don't need to read your prediction on day 15.
Because usually your prediction and my expectation are similar, if not exactly
the same.

If you think those matches should be in Yaocho category, probably our view of
categorizing yaocho is different. I only consider yaocho as deliberate or
premeditate to lose a match. And I don't think the majority of the cases 7-7
rikishi winning the last match is such case.

As I wrote before, I don't think it's possible to tell what is yaocho and what
is not, even if a match looked like that one rikishi did not work too hard.
Anything is possible in sumo. If you are forced to start when you are not
mentally ready, the match may look like yaocho case. But again, it may be
because of lack of readiness with a rikishi.

There is a word in sumo "nigate" and "nigate-ishiki". Even if a rikishi is more
experienced and well-trained and generally considered as the better rikishi
than his opponent between certain rikishi, the stronger rikishi may be easily
beaten over and over again. That could be yaocho and that may not be yaocho.
Akebono is (or once was) a strong yokozuna, and kept lost against Maegashira
(or occasional Sanyaku) Takatoriki. That could be yaocho but I don't think so.

Sumo is a small community and many of them grown up and trained together, going
country side together. And with the reason I wrote about in my previous post, I
tend to think that the way 7-7 wins the last bout is not necessarily yaocho.

If you think those are yaocho, that's your opinion and I won't try to change
your opinion at all. Just to tell other people that sumo is not just a
statistics, though it's fun to play with statistics.

-Toshiyori Masumiriki


Chuck Fin berg wrote:

> Abe-san,
> I think you and I are agreeing regarding non-7/7 yaocho.
> But the numbers don't lie, so I don't think the discussion ends by saying
> "mathematical probability should not be applied to sumo."  Does anyone
> really think I have any special knowledge of sumo, or crystal ball, that
> allows me to predict almost every bout I choose to on Day 15?  It is
> fantastic, although nice, to believe that results of 7/7 bouts are only due
> to being "psyched up"?  Chacun a son gout.  Personally, I attribute a lot of
> it to a sort of  "a rising tide lifts all boats" cameraderie, so that it
> makes sense to me that the sensational yaocho reports deal with other types
> of bouts.
> - chuck
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Masumi Abe <abe@accesscom.com>
> To: Sumo ML <sumo@brooks.statgen.ncsu.edu>
> Sent: Friday, February 04, 2000 7:27 AM
> Subject: SUMO: 7-7 yaocho?
>
> I totally disagree with the opinion based on the mathematical
> probability. The reason of my disagreement is because of the way Sumo
> works.
>
> In Maegashira, top rikishi and bottom rikishi are paid equally. There
> are no benefit to be promoted to very high, unless you believe in your
> ability to get to Sanyaku level or your chance to receive Sansho prize.
> On the other hand, getting kachikoshi or winning record will increase
> your base payment and it's very important for each rikishi. Demotion to
> Juryo will hurt them a lot, too.
>
> As a result, emotionally 7-7 rikishi will be psyched up well compared to
> 8-6 or 6-8 rikishi who are safe to stay in Maku(no)uchi. 9-5 rikishi has
> a possibility of winning Sansho and probably serious about winning.
>
> In short, there might be some yaocho matches involved 7-7 rikishi, but
> mathematical probability should not be applied to sumo.
>
> With or without yaocho, more or less their real rank reflect their
> relative strength. For Yusho race, Yokozuna/Ozeki promotion, I can see
> the value of buying and selling matches, and there must have been such
> cases more than once.
>
> -Masumi
>
> --
> *********************************************************
> * Masumi Abe (aka Masumiriki / Imanonami)
> * mailto: abe@accesscom.com
> * WWW: http://www.accesscom.com/~abe
> * from Sapporo through Tokyo to Palo Alto, California
> *********************************************************
> Imagine, all the people living for today...living life in peace...
> sharing all the world...You may say I am a dreamer, but I'm not the only
> one.
> I hope someday you'll join us, and the world will live as one. (John
> Lennon)

--
*********************************************************
* Masumi Abe (aka Masumiriki / Imanonami)
* mailto: abe@accesscom.com
* WWW: http://www.accesscom.com/~abe
* from Sapporo through Tokyo to Palo Alto, California
*********************************************************
Imagine, all the people living for today...living life in peace...
sharing all the world...You may say I am a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.
I hope someday you'll join us, and the world will live as one. (John Lennon)