Re: SUMO: 7-7 yaocho?

["Chuck Finberg" <cfinberg@wco.com>]

Abe-san,
I think you and I are agreeing regarding non-7/7 yaocho.
But the numbers don't lie, so I don't think the discussion ends by saying
"mathematical probability should not be applied to sumo."  Does anyone
really think I have any special knowledge of sumo, or crystal ball, that
allows me to predict almost every bout I choose to on Day 15?  It is
fantastic, although nice, to believe that results of 7/7 bouts are only due
to being "psyched up"?  Chacun a son gout.  Personally, I attribute a lot of
it to a sort of  "a rising tide lifts all boats" cameraderie, so that it
makes sense to me that the sensational yaocho reports deal with other types
of bouts.
- chuck
----- Original Message -----
From: Masumi Abe <abe@accesscom.com>
To: Sumo ML <sumo@brooks.statgen.ncsu.edu>
Sent: Friday, February 04, 2000 7:27 AM
Subject: SUMO: 7-7 yaocho?


I totally disagree with the opinion based on the mathematical
probability. The reason of my disagreement is because of the way Sumo
works.

In Maegashira, top rikishi and bottom rikishi are paid equally. There
are no benefit to be promoted to very high, unless you believe in your
ability to get to Sanyaku level or your chance to receive Sansho prize.
On the other hand, getting kachikoshi or winning record will increase
your base payment and it's very important for each rikishi. Demotion to
Juryo will hurt them a lot, too.

As a result, emotionally 7-7 rikishi will be psyched up well compared to
8-6 or 6-8 rikishi who are safe to stay in Maku(no)uchi. 9-5 rikishi has
a possibility of winning Sansho and probably serious about winning.

In short, there might be some yaocho matches involved 7-7 rikishi, but
mathematical probability should not be applied to sumo.

With or without yaocho, more or less their real rank reflect their
relative strength. For Yusho race, Yokozuna/Ozeki promotion, I can see
the value of buying and selling matches, and there must have been such
cases more than once.

-Masumi

--
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* Masumi Abe (aka Masumiriki / Imanonami)
* mailto: abe@accesscom.com
* WWW: http://www.accesscom.com/~abe
* from Sapporo through Tokyo to Palo Alto, California
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